COVID-19

Updated tract maps show that COVID-19 is spreading evenly throughout Lafourche Parish and there is no particular "hotspot" for the virus. 

The new maps show that the virus is touching north, south and central Lafourche almost identically, a change from what we've seen in recent months. 

In the early days of the pandemic, Thibodaux took the hardest blow from COVID-19, then in recent weeks, it was the southern and central portions of Lafourche that were being hardest hit. 

But now, the new cases are spread almost evenly throughout each reach of the parish. This aligns with Governor John Bel Edwards' sentiments, which say that COVID-19 is in every community of the state. 

Let's look at the numbers.

Northern Lafourche:

Northern Thibodaux: 48 cases on May 4, 56 cases on May 31, 58 cases two Mondays ago, 59 cases last Monday, 60 cases today (1 more).

Central Thibodaux: 

Tract 1: 13 cases on May 4, 15 cases on May 31, 16 cases two Mondays ago, 16 cases last Monday, 16 cases today. 

Tract 2: 21 cases on May 4, 21 cases on May 31, 21 cases two Mondays ago, 21 cases last Monday, 20 cases today.*

Tract 3: 13 cases on May 4, 15 cases on May 31, 15 cases two Mondays ago, 16 cases last Monday, 19 cases today (3 more).

Tract 4: 24 cases on May 4, 35 cases on May 31, 36 cases two Mondays ago, 38 cases last Monday, 39 cases today (1 more).

*The state re-classified its cases last week to remove duplicates and address disputes. For Tract 2 to see less cases today, compared to before indicates one of those cases may have been a duplicate or may have belonged to another area. 

Southwest Thibodaux (near Terrebonne line):

Tract 1: 62 cases on May 4, 60 cases on May 31*, 60 cases two Mondays ago, 61 cases last Monday, 67 cases today (6 more).

Tract 2: 79 cases on May 4, 89 cases on May 31, 89 cases two Mondays ago, 89 cases last Monday, 89 cases today. 

*There has long been discrepancy between the Lafourche/Terrebonne line and where some of Lafourche's cases in this area actually come from. The subtraction is highly likely a correction of a mistake in previous data. Parish officials have long said that several Terrebonne cases were mistakenly given to Lafourche. 

Extreme northwestern Lafourche: 23 cases on May 4, 28 cases on May 31, 29 cases two Mondays ago, 31 cases last Monday, 30 cases today.*

Northern Thibodaux toward Chackbay: 10 cases on May 4, 11 cases on May 31, 14 cases two Mondays ago, 16 cases last Monday, 18 cases today (2 more).

Far East Thibodaux and south Chackbay: 10 cases on May 4, 9 cases on May 31*, 9 cases two Mondays ago, 9 cases last Monday, 11 cases today (2 more)

*Same as the Terrebonne Parish issue. There were issues with Lafourche and Assumption Parish cases, which likely caused a correction in data. 

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Central Lafourche

East side of Bayou Lafourche from Lockport to near Hwy. 90 through Des Allemands: 19 cases on May 4, 20 cases on May 31, 31 cases two Mondays ago, 37 cases last Monday, 39 cases today (2 more).

West side of Bayou Lafourche from St. Charles community to Raceland:

Tract 1: 6 cases on May 4, 9 cases on May 31, 11 cases two Mondays ago, 13 cases last Monday, 17 cases today (4 more)

Tract 2: 13 cases on May 4, 18 cases on May 31, 18 cases two Mondays ago, 19 cases last Monday, 21 cases today (2 more)

Tract 3: 13 cases on May 4, 18 cases on May 31, 19 cases two Mondays ago, 19 cases last Monday, 20 cases today (1 more)

Central Raceland: 33 cases on May 4, 39 cases on May 31, 42 cases two Mondays ago, 45 cases last Monday, 46 cases today (1 more)

West side of Bayou Lafourche covering some of Raceland, Mathews and stopping near the town of Lockport: 14 cases on May 4, 20 on May 31, 20 cases two Mondays ago, 21 cases last Monday, 21 cases today 

Town of Lockport: No tract data provided on May 4; 16 cases on May 31, 17 cases two Mondays ago, 17 cases last Monday, 16 cases today*

West side of Bayou Lafourche from south of the Town of Lockport through Valentine to northern Larose: 20 cases on May 4, 26 cases on May 31, 32 cases two Mondays ago, 43 cases last Monday, 52 cases today (9 more)

*The state re-classified its cases last week to remove duplicates and address disputes. For Lockport to see less cases today, compared to before indicates one of those cases may have been a duplicate or may have belonged to another area. 

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South Lafourche

Central Larose: 8 cases on May 4, 15 cases on May 31, 22 cases two Mondays ago, 24 cases last Monday, 27 cases today (3 more)

West side of Bayou Lafourche encompassing more of southern Larose and northern Cut Off: 1-5 cases on May 4, 13 cases on May 31, 24 cases two Mondays ago, 31 cases last Monday, 33 cases today (2 more)

West side of Bayou Lafourche from Cut Off to Leeville: 9 cases on May 4, 16 cases on May 31, 23 cases two Mondays ago, 24 cases last Monday, 30 cases today (6 more)

East side of Bayou Lafourche from Larose to Leeville: 1-5 cases on May 4, 10 cases on May 31, 16 cases two Mondays ago, 24 cases last Monday, 30 cases today (6 more)

Town of Golden Meadow: 6 cases on May 4, 10 cases on May 31, 13 cases two Mondays ago, 18 cases last Monday, 19 cases today (1 more)

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Grand Isle

Grand Isle is in a tract with 11 COVID-19 cases, but their tract contains a large sliver of mainland Jefferson Parish. Most of the tract is marsh, but it is also shared with Lafitte. That tract now has 12 COVID-19 cases.

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Breakdown of new cases in Lafourche: 

Northern Lafourche: 15 cases in the past week, per updated tract maps,(also 1 subtraction).

Central Lafourche: 19 cases in the past week, per updated tract maps (also 1 subtraction). 

South Lafourche: 18 cases in the past week, per updated tract maps. 

*NOTE: Tract maps do leave out some cases, because some people live in extreme rural areas that do not belong to a "tract". The state says that 37,639 of the state's more than 49,000 cases were assigned to these maps, or close to 75 percent of total cases. A tract with a population of less than 1,000 is not factored into the map. 

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CONCLUSION:

Case growth is growing, but not exponentially, which is a good thing.

What does that mean? Exponential growth means that for every 1 person infected with COVID-19, a few others also get infected, which continues to double and double your infected portion of the population - the phenomenon which experts feared when COVID-19 started.

Last week, the "hot spots" were in central and southern Lafourche, but their case loads in the past 7 days have actually gone down, which shows exponential growth is not happening.

From June 1-June 8, Central Lafourche added 24 cases, the same amount as that the area added from June 9-16. This past week, 19 cases were added, which is a small decrease. 

In Southern Lafourche, from June 1-8, there were 34 new cases added. There were 23 new cases added from June 9-16. Last week, there were 18 new cases added, which again represents a decrease. 

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